Note: The examples and case studies in this article are hypothetical but represent real situations I have encountered in my practice working with Washington State public employees.

Twelve years is a long bridge

Picture a 55-year-old civil engineer with a county public works department. He’s in PERS 2 with 27 years of service, and he plans to retire at 58.

His wife is 54 and works as a payroll specialist for a school district in SERS 2. Between their DCP accounts and IRAs, they’ve saved about $750,000.

He’s read the same advice everyone reads: wait until 70 to claim Social Security.

So he runs the timeline. Retire at 58, claim at 70, and that’s twelve years of living on his pension plus whatever the portfolio can send.

It’s a long bridge to build out of savings.

The case for waiting is real

If your full retirement age is 67, claiming at 62 cuts your monthly benefit by 30%, permanently [1]. Waiting until 70 raises it to 124% of the full amount [2]. The age-70 check ends up about 77% larger than the age-62 check, for life, with an inflation adjustment every year.

Married couples get an extra reason to wait. A surviving spouse can receive 100% of the deceased spouse’s benefit, including the credits earned by delaying [6]. If he’s the higher earner, waiting raises the floor his wife would live on.

Still, most people don’t wait. In 2022, 29% of people claimed at 62, and only 23% waited past full retirement age [5].

What the math assumes about the meantime

Much of the research behind “wait until 70” uses a discount rate at or near zero [3]. In plain terms, it treats a dollar at 95 as worth the same as a dollar at 62.

That would be fair if the money you spend while waiting would otherwise sit still. It doesn’t. For this couple, it comes out of an invested portfolio.

Derek Tharp, a researcher at Kitces.com, argues the better starting point is what that portfolio would have earned [3]. A U.S. 60/40 portfolio returned about 4.89% a year after inflation from 1901 through 2022, according to a CFA Institute study [4]. At a rate in that neighborhood, delaying to 70 loses much of its edge [3].

Tharp also layers in risks the standard models leave out, like dying before the breakeven age or spending your healthiest years waiting on a bigger check [3].

Benefit cuts belong on that list too. The 2026 Trustees Report projects the retirement trust fund will run short in late 2032, with about 78% of scheduled benefits payable after that unless Congress acts [7]. A cut would hit every claiming age. But the later you start, the more of your total benefits arrive after it.

Where the bridge years bite

The risk I think about most for early retirees is sequence of returns. A bad market in your first few years of retirement does more damage than the same drop fifteen years later.

Waiting on Social Security makes those early withdrawals larger. His portfolio would be covering the normal gap and standing in for a full Social Security check, every year from 58 to 70.

Tharp tested this with a hypothetical $500,000 retiree starting in late 2007. Claiming at 62 or 70 produced similar spending at first. But delaying forced a spending cut during the financial crisis and left a much smaller portfolio 18 years later [3].

It’s one historical path. It still shows where the pressure lands.

You may hear that you can undo a delay by claiming six months of back benefits if markets turn. That option only exists once you’re past full retirement age [8]. In the 58-to-67 stretch, it’s not available.

Your pension already does part of the job

Washington public employees aren’t the people most of these studies picture.

Tharp cites research finding that retirees spend roughly 80% of their guaranteed lifetime income but only about half of their investment income [3]. For someone without a pension, early Social Security is how they get that spendable income.

For you, a DRS pension already fills that role.

On inflation, the comparison favors Social Security. Plan 2 and 3 pensions have a COLA capped at 3% a year, with banking for years when inflation runs higher [9]. Social Security adjusts each year based on the CPI-W [10]. A larger Social Security check adds inflation protection your pension can’t fully provide on its own.

As a CPA, I’d add one more factor. The low-income years before Social Security starts are often a good window for Roth conversions, and that tax angle usually favors waiting. However, we don’t want to let the tax tail wag the dog.

Two people, two decisions

For this couple, I wouldn’t frame the choice as 62 or 70. I’d look at each spouse separately.

His benefit carries the survivor protection, so delaying it has value beyond his own lifetime [6]. Her smaller benefit could start earlier and take pressure off the portfolio during the bridge. If he dies first, she generally receives the larger of the two benefits, not both [6].

The question gets narrower from there. How much does the portfolio have to send each year before Social Security starts? And can it absorb a bad first five years without forcing changes they’d hate?

Both questions have answers you can calculate.

The number worth finding first

Pull both of your Social Security estimates from your Social Security account, along with your DRS pension estimate for your planned retirement date.

Then add up what the portfolio would need to cover each year between retirement and each claiming age you’re considering. Find the largest single year and compare it to your total savings.

If that percentage makes you uneasy, it’s telling you something a breakeven chart won’t.

If you’re concerned about your current financial plan and would like to explore professional help, consider reaching out.

I specialize in helping Washington Public employees who are nearing retirement or are retired, reduce taxes, maximize pensions, and retire stress-free.

No sales pressure. No obligations. Just professional guidance to help you make the best decision for your financial future.

-Seth Deal

Sources

[1] Social Security Administration. "Program Explainer: Benefit Claiming Age." https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/program-explainers/benefit-claiming-age.html​

[2] Social Security Administration. "Delayed Retirement: If You Were Born in 1960 or Later." https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/1960-delay.html​

[3] Tharp, Derek. "Why Delaying Social Security Benefits Isn’t Always The Best Decision." Kitces.com. September 17, 2025. https://www.kitces.com/blog/discount-rate-delaying-social-security-benefits-retirement-planning/​

[4] Pham, Nga, Bei Cui, and Ummul Ruthbah. "The Performance of the 60/40 Portfolio: A Historical Perspective." CFA Institute Research and Policy Center. February 2025. https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/sites/default/files/docs/research-reports/monash-report-1_performance-of-the-6040_online.pdf​

[5] Sprick, Emerson. "Social Security Claiming Age: Importance, Claiming Behavior, and Trends." Bipartisan Policy Center. February 12, 2024. https://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/social-security-claiming-age-importance-claiming-behavior-and-trends/​

[6] Social Security Administration. "Social Security Handbook § 407: Amount of Widow(er)’s Insurance Benefit." https://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/handbook/handbook.04/handbook-0407.html​

[7] Social Security Administration. "Social Security Board of Trustees: Projection for Combined Trust Funds Remains Consistent with Prior Year." June 9, 2026. https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/press/releases/2026-06-09.html​

[8] Social Security Administration. "Delayed Retirement Credits." https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/delayret.html​

[9] Washington State Department of Retirement Systems. "Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA)." https://www.drs.wa.gov/life/retired/cola/​

[10] Social Security Administration. "Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Information." https://www.ssa.gov/cola/​

Seth Deal is an investment advisor representative of LifeFocus Financial Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. This email is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

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